tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-71353500486014527322024-02-08T05:43:25.152+01:00The UnconventionalThe Unconventionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05337590581197249129noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7135350048601452732.post-20980416748581270712013-05-28T14:36:00.000+02:002013-05-28T14:36:42.912+02:00Blurring Lines of Terror<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>After the Oslo terror attacks, the Boston Marathon bombings and the Woolwich attack, it is time to reflect on the blurring line of international terrorism and domestic extremism as Europe once again seems to be behind the curve.</b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivoohb-zeeBDThVOi4nrZS7OCTZ2JDnzT1nGIe3sVtbbZJILeHED8r5EeiLsGzO_lGrbOBxqyhhw5Vy99AwlDSCJnobthMOwZKoywndgU0A3lR7-hMsvq_KxnHRSHJko7MWZ0peo5mq_8/s1600/Blurring_lines.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivoohb-zeeBDThVOi4nrZS7OCTZ2JDnzT1nGIe3sVtbbZJILeHED8r5EeiLsGzO_lGrbOBxqyhhw5Vy99AwlDSCJnobthMOwZKoywndgU0A3lR7-hMsvq_KxnHRSHJko7MWZ0peo5mq_8/s1600/Blurring_lines.JPG" height="170" width="400" /></a></div>
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Several incidents happened recently
which were carried out by Muslim individuals that shine a light on
new trends in terrorist acts. Two Chechen men, who were not born in
the US but grew up there, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Marathon_bombings">placed
several bombs</a> near the finish line of the Boston Marathon,
killing three people and injuring 264. Two men in Woolwich, England
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/may/22/police-respond-serious-incident-woolwich">brutally
attacked</a> a soldier in civilian clothes then attacked the police
constables arriving on the scene. The perpetrators were Muslims born
in England and one of them at least only converted to Islam later in
his life. Furthermore, a French soldier patrolling the outskirts of
Paris was <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/25/us-france-stabbing-idUSBRE94O09420130525">attacked</a>
by an allegedly Muslim perpetrator, stabbing the soldier in the neck,
wounding him severely (the details of this attack and the motives
behind it are still unclear).</div>
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In the light of these incidents one
must contemplate the consequences and draw new conclusions about the
differences and similarities between international terrorism and
domestic extremism. The Athena Institute have been concentrating
solely on domestic far-right/left extremist groups (the Hungarian
Roma serial-killers, Anders Breivik or the National Socialist
Underground), differentiating them from any kind of international or
state funded terrorist organizations, be that Islamist like Al Qaida
or separatist like ETA or the IRA. However, the aforementioned
attacks are signalling a changing picture where the lines between
organized domestic extremism and international terrorism – as we
understood these two phenomena previously – are becoming more and
more blurred.</div>
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The perpetrators of both the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/tamerlan-dzhokhar-tsarnaev-boston-bombings-chechnya">Boston
bombings</a> and the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/may/23/woolwich-attack-suspect-michael-adebolajo">Woolwich
attacks</a> can be considered home-grown extremists (the French
attacker’s background is still unknown); they were not members of
any international terror organisations and they planned and carried
out their attacks without direct help or funding from such groups.</div>
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The facts mentioned above show uncanny
similarities between the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/21/boston-bombers-complex-picture">Tsarnaev
brothers</a>, Michael Adebolajo and members of organised or informal
domestic extremist groups, thus it is getting harder and harder to
make a clear-cut differentiation between the perpetrators of such
attacks and domestic extremists who carry out acts of terrorism
(<a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/18">sometimes
causing mass casualties</a>) and spread hostile propaganda.</div>
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After the first five years of the 21<sup>st</sup>
century that to some extent was a 'success story' for international
Islamist terror groups like Al Qaida, marked by mass casualty terror
attacks both in the US and the EU, it seems Islamists have changed
their strategy due to the serious pressure put on them by national
security and international law enforcement agencies both in Europe
and North-America. Today these groups are less likely to organize or
fund an attack directly; instead they make a huge effort in the field
of online and offline radicalization via a plethora of websites,
leaflets, blogs, Youtube videos, radical Imams, etc.</div>
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Hence, people who carry out attacks
based on an Islamist extremist ideology can be characterize as
domestic extremists, since they have a lot in common with
perpetrators like Anders Breivik, the <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/map/olvas/34">Death
Squad</a> in Hungary, or the <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-prosecutors-file-charges-against-neo-nazi-murder-suspect-a-866113.html">NSU</a>
in Germany. They are home-grown, they are lone wolves or work in
small informal groups and they became radicalized by extremists and
extremist materials online and offline. This also means that law
enforcement agencies might have to alter their methods to be able to
hinder future attacks.</div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7135350048601452732" name="_GoBack"></a>The second
ramification of recent developments is that far right domestic
extremist groups like the English Defence League or other
Islamophobic organisations need these attacks like a glass of water
in the Sahara. Islamist and Islamophobic extremists feed off of each
other. A previous example of that could be seen in <a href="http://oneunconventional.blogspot.hu/2012/09/from-california-to-benghazi-and-back.html">Benghazi</a>
when an anti-Islam film made in the United States was used to spark
massive riots in Egypt, then in Libya, leading to the murder of
several members of the US diplomatic corps; and in England where the
EDL, the BNP and other extremists immediately tried and are still
trying to <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/edl-marches-on-newcastle-as-attacks-on-muslims-increase-tenfold-in-the-wake-of-woolwich-machete-attack-which-killed-drummer-lee-rigby-8631612.html">capitalize</a>
on the murder of the British soldier.</div>
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The <a href="http://oneunconventional.blogspot.hu/2013/02/structural-drivers-of-extremism-in.html">systemic
weaknesses</a> that all EU countries are to face, including
especially the massive problems with the integration of immigrants
make Europe vulnerable. If the recent tendency continues and we face
a future where we have to think of Islamist extremism driven
terrorists as European domestic extremists, our approach to the
problem has to be altered. Also, these kinds of attacks fuel
far-right extremism further, hence it can lead to violent clashes
between far-right groups and immigrant communities. Considering the
fragile nature of the relationship of all European countries with
their minority – esp. immigrant – communities, it is safe to say
that – on one hand - Al Qaida and other international terrorist
organisation can use this fragility for their own gain to destabilize European countries and – on the other – far-right extremist groups can exploit this trend to reach larger audiences and gain bigger political influence, which in return can lead to even greater pressure on mainstream politics to turn towards anti-democratic policies in immigration and freedom of religion.</div>
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For Europe, it is high time to consider
implications and if necessary alter policies to confront a
potentially deteriorating trend to make sure that dark-future
scenarios – in which old and new (immigrant) communities of
Europeans are terrorizing each other in a downward spiral of
intimidation and violence – will remain just that; scenarios.</div>
The Unconventionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05337590581197249129noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7135350048601452732.post-56616898343256060522013-02-15T16:20:00.002+01:002013-02-15T16:20:42.202+01:00Structural Drivers of Extremism in Europe (I.)<br />
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<b>The European
integration is a great and unparalleled endeavour, but the real life
implementation of very positive ideals (freedom of movement) bore
side-effects. The domestic extremist “industry” thrives on the
structural tension generated by this ever-changing environment. Therefore, the EU must face these challenges and it has to be loud
and clear about the importance of dealing with the aforementioned
problems on a European level, drawing up European initiatives,
policies and programmes. Otherwise the domestic extremism problem of
Europe will grow more and more sombre and dangerous.</b></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfueMR_q_rQ15TZr5rDQVq9PUTUN_m50ABsTmEaamj_XQuoWBVhcbOCyuhguaq14ePZKpmiSt8q4m_-1zAyxcUJwS83EZ0AO0-XZCs0enDjxqI6iFJDTYWGbqDgGZgRXsmlrnd283S23M/s1600/roma_deport.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfueMR_q_rQ15TZr5rDQVq9PUTUN_m50ABsTmEaamj_XQuoWBVhcbOCyuhguaq14ePZKpmiSt8q4m_-1zAyxcUJwS83EZ0AO0-XZCs0enDjxqI6iFJDTYWGbqDgGZgRXsmlrnd283S23M/s1600/roma_deport.jpg" height="250" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: The Telegraph</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<a href="" name="_GoBack"></a>Europe
has had a domestic extremism problem – now <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/europe/ideologies">mostly
of the far-right blend</a> – for more than a decade now. Presiding
on top of the 'extremist pyramid', local far-right parties sitting in
local and national parliaments and the European parliament are
critical or hostile to the mainstream democratic processes and the
EU, still they mostly accept the basic rules of party politics –
thus they can be dealt with politically. The worst part of the
problem, therefore, is posed by second tier of the pyramid: Europe’s
ever-growing non-party <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/europe/map">organized
extremist group scene</a> that is glimmering on the fringes of the
bourgeoning far-right scene of the Old Continent. (The 'bottom' layer
of the pyramid is the broad, loosely-tied 'movement' with the
counter-cultural, etc. aspects.)</div>
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The process as the new
threat emerged from the irrelevance of obscurity was marked by deadly
incidents: the racist shooting in Florence, Italy and the attacks of
the far-left Nuove Brigate Rosse, the National Socialist Underground
in Germany, the Malmö sniper in Sweden, Breivik in Norway, the Roma
Death Squad in Hungary, the plot to <a href="http://oneunconventional.blogspot.hu/2012/11/after-polish-plot-time-to-face-european.html">bomb
the Sejm in Poland</a>, the lynching-like actions of the <a href="http://oneunconventional.blogspot.hu/2013/01/dawns-are-gonna-be-golden-in-europe.html">Golden
Dawn</a> and the commonplace fire bombings carried out by far-left
groups in Greece all occurred in the past few years. At the same
time, since the 2005 London bombings, one single international
terrorist incident took place on the continent (the Burgas attack
against Israeli tourists).</div>
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<span lang="en-GB">While some </span><span style="color: navy;"><span lang="zxx"><u><a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-59_en.htm?locale=en"><span lang="en-GB">alarm
bells were rung</span></a></u></span></span><span lang="en-GB">,
still European political elites mostly keep acting as if the new
emerging threat had nothing to do with the deep systemic
vulnerabilities – ranging from immigration to the economy, social
mobility and education – that plague every country in the EU. As a
consequence, the same political elites seem to ignore the fact that
the aforementioned national problems have become EU-wide issues –
politicians keep acting as if they were still governing the same
nation states as in the 1950s and not multicultural, multi-ethnic,
poly-religious, demographically heterogenic countries that have
become organic parts of a supranational organisation.</span></div>
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The European integration –
enhanced by the Schengen Agreement - is far from being over or from
being perfect. Thus it is paramount for everybody to understand that
problems like immigration, integration, racism, multiculturalism,
etc. that used to be seen as national issues have become common
European problems that must be dealt with by the EU as a whole,
because the situation right now is a hotbed for extremism that
thrives on the insecurities and prejudices of people.</div>
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The past twenty years have
brought immense positive changes on the continent, but they have also
brought new challenges. The European integration carries side effects
that were not foreseen. Fundamental changes occurred in the
structural environment that made globalisation very real on a local
level. Besides immigration, the situation of the European Roma
community is probably the best example of how fast European ideas and
values can be ignored when issues, choices and solutions become too
complex to be addressed only by repeating easily perceivable
one-liners.</div>
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<span lang="en-GB">France and Italy
were fast to “repatriate” the Romanian and Bulgarian Roma,
accusing the said two countries with “exporting” their issues to
Western countries. Canada has drawn up a list of safe countries from
where they would not accept asylum seekers, because of the rush of
Hungarian Roma at their doors </span><span lang="en-GB">(while also
launching </span><span lang="en-GB"><a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/41">an
advertisement campaign in Miskolc</a>, Hungary to inform the Roma
community that they will not be warmly welcome</span><span lang="en-GB">)</span><span lang="en-GB">.
<a href="http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Gypsy_tensions_magnify_culture_clash.html?cid=33545176">Switzerland</a>,
<a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/report-german-government-fails-to-fight-racism-against-sinti-and-roma-a-872552.html">Germany</a>
and <a href="http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20120722/NEWS02/707229934">Norway</a>
have also had their fair share of <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-cities-worried-about-high-immigration-from-romania-and-bulgaria-a-881409.html">problems</a>
with the wave of Romani immigrants from newly joined EU countries and
the Balkans.</span></div>
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<span lang="en-GB">These recently
emerged tendencies should not be met by mere populism, since that
only fuels extremism further. Populist reactions by centrist
politicians give ammunition to far-right/left parties and domestic
extremist groups. They can also lead to the <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/34">process
of securitisation</a>, i.e. a process through which politics or
extremists reify this highly complex, continent-wide socioeconomic
issue as a security problem </span><span lang="en-GB">('immigrants'
or the 'Roma' are 'threatening 'us')</span><span lang="en-GB">. Such
reactions in the target countries can also stir up extremist
reactions in the immigrants’ <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/41">countries
of origin</a>. The amalgamation of these phenomena then can lead to
the development of an enabling environment, in which the process of
<a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/6">radicalisation</a>
becomes much easier and much more rapid.</span></div>
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<div lang="en-GB" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The European Integration
is a great and unparalleled endeavour. However, the devil lies in the
details, i.e. the implementation of very positive ideals (freedom of
movement). The extremist “industry” thrives on the structural
tension that is generated by this ever-changing environment.
Therefore, the EU must face these challenges and it has to be loud
and clear about the importance of dealing with the aforementioned
problems on a European level, drawing up European initiatives,
policies and programmes that apply a holistic approach. Otherwise the
domestic extremism problem of Europe will grow more and more sombre
and dangerous.</div>
The Unconventionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05337590581197249129noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7135350048601452732.post-41185297382681843212013-01-14T19:28:00.002+01:002013-01-14T19:33:00.127+01:00Dawns are Gonna be Golden in Europe?<br />
<b>From Cold War time prison discussions with the Regime of the Colonels, the extreme right Golden Dawn first made it to the Greek Parliament. Now it reaches out to Italy and Spain. Are they doing it on their own?</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNIH53jAlxjHMw8uslnWUS_XasVHrfFhjlHv4X35M33KrAIwOyZR8yl5nh4cTrhlHud5o2rUSej2BOS057Jwd3oQvGfBqtdE1QeuPxGY89vefUDv_76di_a4D2kNlqwo2Clr_5jAmr3Ek/s1600/puppet_GD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNIH53jAlxjHMw8uslnWUS_XasVHrfFhjlHv4X35M33KrAIwOyZR8yl5nh4cTrhlHud5o2rUSej2BOS057Jwd3oQvGfBqtdE1QeuPxGY89vefUDv_76di_a4D2kNlqwo2Clr_5jAmr3Ek/s1600/puppet_GD.jpg" height="286" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b>Rise in Greece</b></div>
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<span lang="en-GB">Ever since the
collapse of the world banking system in 2008, the EU and the Eurozone
have been struggling with whopping levels of national debt, economic
depression, stagnation and utter disillusionment of the general
public. There are a couple of EU countries though that even have it
worse. For instance Ireland, Spain, Italy, Hungary and especially
Greece took a nosedive off the “fiscal cliff” with high rates of
unemployment (particularly amongst the youth), high inflation levels
and no economic growth – discontent is palpable on the whole
continent.</span></div>
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<span lang="en-GB">In Greece, the
mixture of total disillusionment in the political elite, staggering
levels of corruption and nepotism and the high level of immigration
without a sensible and sound integration strategy got hit by this
enormous external shock, the great recession. The standard of living
plummeted whilst unemployment skyrocketed. It did not take long for
the reapers of such situations to emerge. </span><span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><span lang="en-GB"><a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/pdf/EUR_MAP_STUDY_ENG_closed.pdf" target="_blank">GoldenDawn</a></span></u></span></span> (GD), a tiny neo-Nazi extremist group developing into a party since the '80ies soon started to harvest what the political centre had sown.</div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><span lang="en-GB"><br /></span></u></span></span></div>
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<span lang="en-GB">A dishonourably
discharged member of Greek special forces, the leader of the
organization spent decades on the fringes of far-right politics while
also being arrested several times for aggravated assault and illegal
possession of explosive materials. His efforts to develop an
impactful organization was fueled also by leaders of the far-right
Greek military junta of 1967-1974 ('the Regime of the Colonels')
whome he met while spending his prison sentence.</span></div>
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<a name='more'></a><br />
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<span lang="en-GB">After decades of
irrelevance, the Greek state meltdown since 2008 opened up the
political mainstream to the organization – an opportunity it did not
hesitate to grab. In doing so, Golden Dawn copied almost identically
the tactics of Jobbik, the far-right Hungarian party
that won 47 seats in the National Assembly during the 2010 general
elections. Golden Dawn members started organizing vigilante groups
and “neighbourhood watches”, intimidation campaigns and hostile
propaganda actions against anyone who opposes them. Just as Jobbik
did with Hungary's Roma community, Golden Dawn made a scapegoat out
of (illegal or undocumented) immigrants while </span><span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/34" target="_blank"><span lang="en-GB">securitizing</span></a></u></span></span><span lang="en-GB">
the issue of immigration (redefining a socio-economic problem as a
security threat) portraying the foreign-born community as the roots
of all that has gone bad in the country. GD's methods are becoming
more and more </span><span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9651505/Golden-Dawn-takes-advantage-of-recession-ravaged-Greece.html" target="_blank"><span lang="en-GB">successful</span></a></u></span></span><span lang="en-GB">:
the organization won almost 7 per cent of the votes during the 2012
general elections and it seems nothing is capable of stopping them to
become the third biggest parliamentary party during the next one.</span></div>
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<span lang="en-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">Whilst the country
is still in deep economic recession and societal turmoil, GD members
and sympathisers </span><span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/400413/20121101/neo-nazi-golden-dawn-mps-attack-migrants.htm" target="_blank"><span lang="en-GB">wreak havoc on the streets</span></a></u></span></span><span lang="en-GB">.
Racially aggravated assaults have become commonplace and they are
becoming more and more violent eroding the reputation of the Greek
state and political elite as the provider of security to Greek
citizens. What is even worse is that the authorities seemingly do
nothing to curb this trend and </span><span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/26/golden-dawn-infiltrated-greek-police-claims" target="_blank"><span lang="en-GB">evidence is starting to emerge</span></a></u></span></span><span lang="en-GB">
that shows that GD has infiltrated the Greek police and secret
services, while also gathering evermore support amongst teachers and
other state employees.</span></div>
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<span lang="en-GB"><b>European
Aspirations and Question Marks</b></span></div>
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<span lang="en-GB"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7135350048601452732" name="_GoBack"></a><span lang="en-GB">However,
it seems that GD is not satisfied with its local and national success
story, they want to expand further. According to several sources
Golden Dawn offices and branches have been established in </span><span lang="en-GB">Italy, </span><span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><a href="http://www.diarioelaguijon.com/noticia/4940/LOS-AGUIJONAZOS/El-lider-del-partido-nazi-Amanecer-Dorado-fundara-una-filial-en-Espana-en-noviembre.html" target="_blank"><span lang="en-GB">Spain</span></a></u></span></span><span lang="en-GB">
and even in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/21/nyregion/reported-golden-dawn-sightings-rattle-astoria-queens.html" target="_blank">New York</a>, NY. In Italy and Spain, these offshoots have
been founded by local extremists who had had close relations to GD
even before (e.g. Forza Nuova, CasaPound). In New York, just like in
Australia and Canada, the party organizes “charity events” to
garner support that they will “dispense amongst ethnic Greeks”
back on the old country. If GD hitherto had been a </span><span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/05/201251585345663264.html" target="_blank"><span lang="en-GB">European problem</span></a></u></span></span><span lang="en-GB">, it may now
becoming a European problem of a whole different magnitude.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">The expansion of
this extremist party on a European level, which only managed to win
less than 1 per cent of the popular vote in 2009, begs several
questions.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">First,
who is behind GD financially?</span><span lang="en-GB"> A
small parliamentary party could hardly afford to open and maintain
offices all around the world without some kind of financial backing.
Thus, one has to ponder the question of Golden Dawn being used as a
proxy by some major player in international politics whose goal is to
weaken the European Union via destabilizing its Southern periphery. </span>Second, how could be
GD stopped in Greece if Greek authorities are indeed littered with
far-right sympathizers? <span lang="en-GB">And
lastly, how can GD’s spread to other European countries be stopped
when many EU </span><span lang="en-GB">countries, including
all Southern member states, suffer from </span><span style="color: blue;"><span lang="hu-HU"><u><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/world/europe/in-spain-having-a-job-no-longer-guarantees-a-paycheck.html?ref=global-home&_r=0" target="_blank"><span lang="en-GB">very similar systemic weaknesses</span></a></u></span></span><span lang="en-GB">
as Greece?</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">Europe must realise
that Greece is not a sad exception in terms of domestic extremism.
The situation is only a little bit less grim in several other EU
countries. The Greek state has already tripped over itself and it is
really hard to for the Greek to see the light at the end of the
tunnel, but they are not completely alone in this mess. Most European
countries suffer from similar systemic weaknesses, high level of
immigration, low level of integration, economic stagnation,
deterioration of living standards, high unemployment. In an
environment like this, the expansion of GD might not be stoppable,
especially if mainstream politicians and key stakeholders will not
start handling domestic extremism as a major threat to good
governance, national security, policies, human rights and fundamental
European values that it is.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">Are European
decision-makers to await when dawns are gonna be golden in Europe?</span></div>
The Unconventionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05337590581197249129noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7135350048601452732.post-3253978846400629912012-11-27T14:47:00.001+01:002012-11-27T14:50:05.376+01:00„Time to List Jews in Hungary” - Extremist Tactics and Strategy in Modern Europe<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span lang="en-US">Yesterday, during a
regular, televised session of the national assembly, a Member of the
Hungarian Parliament </span><span style="color: navy;"><span lang="zxx"><u><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/49976516">demanded</a></u></span></span><span lang="en-US">
that the Government „lists Jews in Hungary, because they pose a
threat to the country's national security due to their allegiance to
the State of Israel.” In his response, an Undersecretary of State
for Foreign Affairs said that he does not understand the question.</span></b></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-QTAvANLtDDPjcDPTW5em6TjLNtPmPGGyQief4WiZ8SjnDgEx9aEuEuvP5IEwAurNRldovFoZEvDmXcxVA0gJFdhwa_qhlMZ-R0A1e9F_xN4MGBl1ILq6znJ0wTBH7qB_LdeRJK7D2_A/s1600/anti_semitic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-QTAvANLtDDPjcDPTW5em6TjLNtPmPGGyQief4WiZ8SjnDgEx9aEuEuvP5IEwAurNRldovFoZEvDmXcxVA0gJFdhwa_qhlMZ-R0A1e9F_xN4MGBl1ILq6znJ0wTBH7qB_LdeRJK7D2_A/s1600/anti_semitic.jpg" height="247" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Clear message (Photo: AP)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-US"></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-US">Nothing else
happened. The next day, a public outcry followed – and expected to
die down in a few days. The very same happened, when another
representative of the the same far-right party raised a blood libel
against the Hungarian Jewry in the Spring, 2012. This was just another
day in the Hungarian Parliament.</span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-US">At the same time,
such 'lists' have been in
existence<span lang="en-US"> for years. Compiled </span><span lang="en-US">and
regularly updated by organized </span><span style="color: navy;"><span lang="zxx"><u><a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/europe/">domestic
extremist groups</a></u></span></span><span lang="en-US">, they are
readily available to anyone on the internet. (We know as we ourselves
are 'listed'.)</span></span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-US">The point is: r</span><span lang="en-US">ight
contrary to some fashionable narratives, the same goes on in many
other European countries. 'Targets' do change, if not the Jews, then
immigrants, Muslims or the Roma are presented as „the threat' - in
Greece, in France, in the Netherlands and elsewhere.</span><br />
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-US"><u><b>Politics of
</b></u></span><span lang="en-US"><u><b>Extremism</b></u></span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-US">T</span><span lang="en-US">he
political tactics rest on the theory of </span><span style="color: navy;"><span lang="zxx"><u><a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/34">securitization</a></u></span></span><span lang="en-US">,
i. e. that extremist organizations not simply provide scapegoats for
societies, but also reify and redefine (mostly) socio-economic issues
as security problems. They produce 'enemies' that shall be fought now
to 'defend' ourselves'. In the Institute's latest study, we </span><span style="color: navy;"><span lang="zxx"><u><a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/the_study">provide
several examples</a></u></span></span><span lang="en-US">
how this tactic is applied – in Greece, in the UK or in Hungary.</span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
It might seem ridiculous to try to portray the most marginalized
communities of Europe (esp. immigrants or the Roma) as existential
threats to our all-powerful states – except for the fact that it
works.</div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
It can work via the 'transmission-belt' effect, when an extremist
group challenges a far-right/left party sitting in a national
parliament 'to deliver on its promises' and raise the 'real issues'
and, in turn, the given far-right/left party challenges the center
parties in government. Sometimes governments do 'deliver', as we have written in our study: „A couple
of months after Golden Dawn got into parliament and the mainstream
political parties who govern the country realized the rapidly growing
popularity of GD and its message, they commenced a huge nationwide
crackdown on illegal immigrants and started repatriating them.”</div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-US">But
it can also work through grooming Anders Breivik-type lone wolves or
Hungarian Roma serial-killer-type small cells, both reaching a point
in the process of radicalization when they decide to take matters
into their own hands. </span><span lang="en-US">Since
the end of the Cold War, an app. 500 European citizens were killed in
</span><span style="color: navy;"><span lang="zxx"><u><a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/major/">major
extremism-related incidents</a></u></span></span><span lang="en-US">
– one third of them died in the past two years.</span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<u><b>The problem</b></u></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Still, the problem is not extremism itself, but the state of denial
most European countries – and their political elites – share.</div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Extremist organizations are mostly weak with marginal resources.
Europe could use its own or others solutions to confront the
phenomenon – just as it did previously (e.g. far-left extremism in
Italy and Germany on the fringes of the '68 movements). But most
European decision-makers seem to hold course and avoid confronting
extremism politically.</div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Extremist groups may never ignite a war. Strong governments are many
times able to ignore their challenges. Even the political fallout of
serial-killers' attacks can be contained. Still, the above ignorance
overlooks the fact that extremism does undermine good governance in
many fields. 'Roma inclusion' in light of the Roma community
re-defined as a 'threat'? 'Multi-cultural societies' in which Jews
shall be listed as „national security risk”? Involvement of
immigrants who might „destroy our identity”?</div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
It is time to look for answers.</div>
<br />The Unconventionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05337590581197249129noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7135350048601452732.post-51905204749274937752012-11-21T00:34:00.001+01:002012-11-21T00:34:17.359+01:00After Polish plot, time to face European extremism<b>
Poland's ABW reported earlier this year that Anders Breivik travelled to the country to acquire explosives. Now a Polish chemistry professor is arrested for plotting to kill the country's Prime Minister while blowing up the Parliament. It is time to step up and make bigger efforts on the European-level before more people die and more European policies will be disfigured by domestic extremists.</b><br />
<div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhReFE-gQ-WJ1a-YaFT2zHuUB-k3UNGnZ3CxQE3ui5kIu0vEvCirEWKpgj7KWrvKBGTSNWc01Y7BypeOywhyphenhyphenlxBp-5_bRL-f0eeQZ8w8fDSEtOkQ1-5DkhOCKLNqaSiPzSBe_v94fre3Ic/s1600/abw_poland.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhReFE-gQ-WJ1a-YaFT2zHuUB-k3UNGnZ3CxQE3ui5kIu0vEvCirEWKpgj7KWrvKBGTSNWc01Y7BypeOywhyphenhyphenlxBp-5_bRL-f0eeQZ8w8fDSEtOkQ1-5DkhOCKLNqaSiPzSBe_v94fre3Ic/s1600/abw_poland.jpg" height="320" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">This time Poland
Internal Security Agency was successful</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">First,
after the arrest of a Polish extremist, it is high time to forget the
counterproductive generalizations on extremists being
„under-educated, unemployed or poor”. Mr. Kwiecień was a
professor with two doctorates, employed by the University of
Agriculture in Krakow and appears to be affluent in light of the fact
that the resources he was able to employ while preparing his plot
required money.</span></div>
<div lang="en-GB" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">Considering
</span><span lang="en-GB"><b>the tactical implications of the case</b></span><span lang="en-GB">,
the important thing is that the perpetrator was </span><span lang="en-GB"><i>not
</i></span><span lang="en-GB">a 'lone wolf'. Polish law enforcement
reported that they have arrested other local co-conspirators. Beyond
this, his plot was discovered by <a href="http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/1,114871,12894715,Szef_MSW_u_Olejnik__Po_zamachu_Breivika_ABW_poglebila.html" target="_blank">law
enforcement and intelligence </a></span><span lang="en-GB"><a href="http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/1,114871,12894715,Szef_MSW_u_Olejnik__Po_zamachu_Breivika_ABW_poglebila.html" target="_blank">agencies</a></span><span lang="en-GB">
looking into Anders Breivik's network. At a news conference, Polish
PM Donald Tusk <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/us-poland-attack-tusk-idUSBRE8AJ0QB20121120">said</a>
that „an analysis of Breivik's contacts abroad had helped lead
Polish investigators to the suspect.” As we pointed out in our
latest <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/the_study/">study on the
European Threat Landscape</a>, deadly extremists rarely materialize
out of thin air – they are products of a broader extremist scene.
This also implies the solution as follows.</span></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div align="JUSTIFY" lang="en-GB" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB"><b>On
the tactical level</b></span><span lang="en-GB">, European countries
must set up capacities on the European level to carry out monitoring,
intelligence sharing and analytical work, exactly because organized
extremists also operate regardless of borders. This Polish case is
just the most recent example. At the time of the arrest of Mr.
Kwiecień, several dozen Hungarian far-right extremist, including a
Member of the Parliament, travelled to Warsaw to meet Polish
counterparts and participate in demonstrations, including violent
clashes with law-enforcement.</span></div>
<div lang="en-GB" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">On </span><span lang="en-GB"><b>the
political level</b></span><span lang="en-GB">, one must consider the
fact that there are millions of people in Europe with similar
knowledge (either in science or in chemical, pharmaceutical, etc.
industries). Moreover, Anders Breivik had no such background in
science, but he was able to bomb central-Oslo based on knowledge he
acquired via the Internet. Europe cannot – and should not – try
to use the criminal justice system to keep an eye on all these
people. However, European countries should definitely develop
capacities jointly to monitor extremist activities, including
surveillance. Still in terms of politics, the sole viable thing in
the long-run must be a focus on better governance (decreasing demand
for extremism) and mitigation by building resilience in European
societies.</span></div>
<div lang="en-GB" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">The
rationale for such a strategy is based on two facts. First, organized
extremist groups – many of them later <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/39">turning
into mostly far-right political parties</a> (e.g. Golden Dawn) –
need broader support in a society to be able to carry out prolonged
activities with significant impact (e.g. <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/europe/map">Hungarian
Guard</a>). Mainstream politics can seriously degrade this political
support by offering a credible alternative supported by convincing
performance. (The <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/context/read/32">same
is also true</a> if European decision-makers will try to avoid making
hard decisions in key fields then people will be more inclined to
accept the “solutions” that extremists have to offer). Secondly,
European decision-makers need to realize that whatever they do, there
will still be <a href="http://athenainstitute.eu/en/major/">attacks</a>.
For instance, one cannot argue that Norway would have been such a
poorly governed country prior to Breivik's attack. Then the sole
question is what political impact these attacks will have – and
this is why the solution is to build resilience in European
societies.</span></div>
<div lang="en-GB" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="en-GB">If
European countries are able to decrease demand on the political
level, invest in intelligence and law enforcement on the tactical
level and in education, etc. on the strategic level </span><span lang="en-GB"><i>and</i></span><span lang="en-GB">
at the same time put emphasis on preparing their citizens for coming
attacks while also emphasizing that such attacks will have a limited
impact and will not be able to undermine the basic democratic
framework of their countries – then if an attack occurs, it will
have indeed been able to cause only limited damage.</span></div>
</div>
The Unconventionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05337590581197249129noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7135350048601452732.post-8123374243919886972012-10-26T15:42:00.003+02:002012-10-26T15:54:48.656+02:00Extremist Groups as Proxies of Foreign Powers<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Artful diplomacies and intelligence services of potential adversaries might easily use domestic extremist groups as proxies to trigger if not war, but serious international political crises that they can try to turn to their advantage in degrading European positions.</span></b></div>
<div style="font: normal normal normal 12px/normal 'Times New Roman'; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj8EzMdaBQ5jFe1qWrnvsGqDiWh5TsIydU8dDqzwc6XfTlZIizM6lQpEjPoieGzKkEit18LLWY_qR10SkeatUhzYI6yLuuKQcIQlRprCsg6ZzERIS32KqRwYwkyUBufhOB86qfthgslQQ/s1600/Dali+Painting.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="353" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj8EzMdaBQ5jFe1qWrnvsGqDiWh5TsIydU8dDqzwc6XfTlZIizM6lQpEjPoieGzKkEit18LLWY_qR10SkeatUhzYI6yLuuKQcIQlRprCsg6ZzERIS32KqRwYwkyUBufhOB86qfthgslQQ/s1600/Dali+Painting.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-family: Times; font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding-bottom: 6px; padding-left: 6px; padding-right: 6px; padding-top: 6px; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px; padding-top: 4px; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Salvador Dali: Geopolitical Child Watching the Birth of the New Man</div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: <a href="http://www.wikipaintings.org/en/salvador-dali/geopolitical-child-watching-the-birth-of-the-new-man-1943" target="_blank">Wikipaintings</a> </span></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font: normal normal normal 12px/normal 'Times New Roman'; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">With all its troubles, Europe, with most of its states in NATO, is perceived as one, if not the most secure place on the planet. Its potential geopolitical adversaries are in a much weaker position than in previous eras. This, however, does not mean that countries interested in changing the status quo will not seek new means to achieve their goals.</span></div>
<div style="font: normal normal normal 12px/normal 'Times New Roman'; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: justify;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span><br /></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font: normal normal normal 12px/normal 'Times New Roman'; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Fiction I – Russia</span></b></span></div>
<div style="font: normal normal normal 12px/normal 'Times New Roman'; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 15px; text-align: justify;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><b></b></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0px;">Before the outbreak of the 2008 financial and subsequent economic crisis, many foreign policy experts portrayed Russia as</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"> <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/europe/2007/resurgent_russia/default.stm">a re-emerging country</a> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="letter-spacing: 0px;">actively involved in limiting further loss of its Cold War-times influence and/or trying to reverse the process. This – much debated – perception was built, at least in part, on solid ground: that since the Napoleonic wars Russian strategic culture was founded on expansionism as a way to build up buffer zones to defend the homeland. After the 2008 Russia-Georgia war – in which Russia reclaimed the two breakaway regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in effect successfully blocking Georgia's acceptance to NATO – the perception became more widespread. Then the international financial crisis hit, the world plunged into one of the most severe recessions in modern history. Oil and gas prices went through the floor, just as Russian state revenue. The narrative of a rapidly re-emerging Russia died down; at least for now.</span></span></div>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">There remained however 'frozen conflicts' and other countries on the geopolitical frontlines: the Baltic States, Moldova/Transnistria and the Caucasus.</span></span></div>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Russia launched its 2008 war against Georgia claiming that it is only responding to an „unprovoked attack”, an action necessary to protect the local Russian-speaking community. That time Western diplomats and NATO officials openly suggested that Russia tricked Georgia into mounting an attack using Russian passport holders as a political weapon.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0px;">In 2007, the Estonian government's decision to move a Soviet war memorial from central Tallinn resulted in a full-blown crisis between Estonia and Russia. Part of the Russian response to the Estonian move was a military exercise of its armed forces stationed in Pskov – home of airborne and other </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">expeditionary</span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="letter-spacing: 0px;"> units – practicing an intervention to ”protect the rights of Russian-speaking Estonians threatened with violence by local nationalists”. The aim of the exercise was supposed to see how easily the Russian invading forces could capture the airfields and ports, thus preventing NATO from reinforcing its allies (1).</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"> In late 2009, Russian and Belorussian units held a very similar joint military exercise </span><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/14776852"><span style="font: normal normal normal 12px/normal 'Times New Roman'; text-decoration: underline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">reportedly</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"> based on a scenario of an attack by „Lithuanian terrorists” against the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.</span></div>
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<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Russian-speaking communities can be found in both the Baltic States and in Moldova/Transnistria. In case it needs a pretext, it seems that Russia only needs „local nationalists” or „terrorists” to „respond”.</span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fiction II – Iran</b></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Iranian nuclear issue has been on the front pages for many years now. Both mainstream news outlets and foreign and security policy circles </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/books/fabooks/iran-and-the-bomb">paid attention</a></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> to many aspects of the issue, including a potential Iranian response to a possible attack by Israeli and/or Western forces. In these deliberations, beyond directly attacking Israel, the possibility of an Iranian counter-strike in Europe was raised. This argument is mostly based on the assumptions that Iranians will seek to attack soft targets and that they have the Hezbollah, a proxy terrorist organization that maintains an extended network in European countries.The above logic sounds very sound until one considers the fact that the Iranian strategy has always been – at least in part – based on dividing potential adversaries and playing out Israel against the U.S. and the U.S. against Europe – and vice versa – in an effort to create as much space for maneuvering as possible. Directly and openly attacking European targets thus does not make too much sense.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Th</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">en the attack against Israeli tourists in July, 2012, in the Bulgarian town of Burgas happened, claiming 5 lives. The aftermath provided a rare spectacle: no group claimed responsibility, Israel and somewhat belatedly the U.S. blamed Hezbollah – but the Europeans remained silent.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The bottom line: in case Iran wants to see Burgas-like or retaliatory attacks, why would they not prefer using European-based domestic extremist groups as proxies – <a href="http://www.athenainstitute.eu/en/europe/groups_and_ideologies">many of them following neo-Nazi ideologies</a></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">. That would grant them 'plausible deniability' and let the Israelis, Americans and Europeans quarrel over the source.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Conclusion</b></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are a <a href="http://www.athenainstitute.eu/en/europe">117 identified, active domestic extremist groups in Europe</a>, one third of them is already involved in carrying out physical attacks. Artful diplomacies and intelligence services of potential adversaries might easily use them as proxies to trigger if not war, but very serious international political crises that they can try to turn to their advantage in degrading European positions.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(1) Edward Lucas, The New Cold War, pp. 202. Bloomsbury, 2009</span>The Unconventionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05337590581197249129noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7135350048601452732.post-68219667869831788272012-09-20T09:58:00.000+02:002012-10-26T15:51:04.331+02:00From California to Benghazi — and Back<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Facts</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0px;">In August, 2012, quite probably a middleman of an unknown actor or somebody called Sam Bacile or Nakoula Basseley Nakoula - or for that matter Mark Basseley Youssef, Yousseff M. Basseley, Nicola Bacily or Malid Ahlawi according to US Court documents provided to <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/15/world/anti-islam-filmmaker/index.html?iid=article_sidebar" target="_blank">CNN</a></span> -, after raising 5m$, hiring a staff and shooting the film, releases an anti-Islam hostile propaganda video. To aide him during the filmmaking, the 'filmmaker' hires a ‘consultant’ - a man <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.splcenter.org/blog/2012/09/12/meet-steve-klein-the-hate-group-leader-who-consulted-on-the-innocence-of-muslims/" target="_blank">confirmed</a></span> to be a leader of a US-based, anti-Islam extremist group.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrosLAJPfNLj8PaGd9ClbADKSaXRBCflaUE-F7CM4stvq4Djx0kgAHOTn89v6k0zwan1OtHpBerava7So0kVKnP_WiQRhOtaO4wJlftd27yGHRB06yN0PZMcTFVYnIvsgCS_7b2Xj1r8M/s1600/bacile.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrosLAJPfNLj8PaGd9ClbADKSaXRBCflaUE-F7CM4stvq4Djx0kgAHOTn89v6k0zwan1OtHpBerava7So0kVKnP_WiQRhOtaO4wJlftd27yGHRB06yN0PZMcTFVYnIvsgCS_7b2Xj1r8M/s400/bacile.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Within weeks, the video’s trailer makes its way to Youtube and gets dubbed to Arabic - days later, in early September, a firestorm of protests shook the BMNA region leading to the killing of a US Ambassador and other 3 diplomatic personnel on September 11, 2012, during an <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2012/09/what-was-really-behind-the-benghazi-attack.html" target="_blank">orchestrated assault</a></span> involving heavy weapons and RPGs as well as subsequent storming of US Embassies in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, Afghanistan, etc.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0px;">In the United States, events put an enormous tactical pressure on US President Barack Obama and trigger a media firestorm ‘on the nature of the course the Arab Spring societies are to take’. Also, the issue reverberates in the US election campaign as Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger raises doubt about the handling of the crisis by the administration. US authorities seem dully confused; first they reportedly provide protection for, then take the supposed 'filmmaker' in for questioning by probation authorities.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">In parallel, the outburst of protests also posed a challenge for newly established governments in Arab Spring countries whose leaders were confronted with the enormous task of handling the heat in countries that are in the first phases of democratic transition.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">The events also complicate matters for all involved in Middle-Eastern affairs from Germany to the Pope visiting Lebanon just that time.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><b>Assessment</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">The above events fit together just too smoothly not to have at least some orchestrated elements amongst them. But even if these were only a series of accidents, the case presents all the challenges posed by non-state actors in a XXI century environment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">In a ‘worst case’ scenario, a hostile state - e.g. Iran, rogue elements in other governments, etc. - that is looking for non-conventional means to deliver a blow - in the given case drive Arab Spring new democracies away from the US - decides to hire a guy without any credibility to ensure deniability and pays him to shoot the film. After its release on Youtube, it dubs it to Arabic and contacts a friendly militia to mount an attack on a US embassy in Libya to trigger a media firestorm. From this point on, those who ordered the campaign from behind can lean back: events are driven further by local actors interested in anti-US agendas throughout the BMNA region.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Results are clear: the US has been humiliated, newly established governments in Arab Spring countries have been successfully challenged, after which - to say the least - some question marks are certainly popping up in US policy-making circles regarding 'the direction' of new Arab Spring democracies.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">In a ‘best case’ scenario, there is no orchestration of the sort described above - it simply turns out that the most advanced states on the planet are unable to control these forces. One group - with a totally blurred background - shoots a hostile propaganda video in the US. Another chooses to use it as a pretext and mount an attack on a US Embassy in Libya. Again, others are launching subsequent protests around the BMNA to score domestic political points in a jockeying for power between moderate and radical Islam parties (as suggested by <span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px color: #0e009e; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-cairo-and-libya-attacks-point-to-radicals-jockeying-for-power/2012/09/12/d0d687d2-fcff-11e1-b153-218509a954e1_story.html" target="_blank">David Ignatius</a></span>). Every group follows its more limited, more ‘local’ goals that result in a much grander cumulative damage done on the world stage.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Such a pattern demonstrates the ability of sub-state actors - making maximum use of constitutional freedoms and rights provided by Western democracies as well as cheap and readily available communications technology, including the Internet - to launch campaigns with the aim of bombarding mainstream politics.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><b>Conclusion</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">Can such a campaign derail US-Arab Spring countries’ relations? In itself it certainly cannot. Does it complicate matters? It certainly does. Was the United States humiliated by the killing of its Ambassador? Indeed it was.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0.0px;">In case the pattern described as a worst case scenario has something to do with reality then it is proven that sub-state (extremist) groups active in the US and Europe can be or already are being used by other countries seeking ‘plausible deniability’ to carry out hostile campaigns.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; letter-spacing: 0px;">If the second, ‘best case scenario’ is true then it will certainly inspire similar actions with the same level of ambition either by non-state groups or states using them. At least, the political technology proved itself to be effective, powerful and successful.</span></div>
<br />The Unconventionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05337590581197249129noreply@blogger.com0